CoB’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Rocking and rolling into week three, something the Bengals offense certainly isn’t doing! It isn’t just the Bengals offense though. Offenses all around the league are historically suffering through two weeks this year. If you are the betting (in Vegas, of course) type, more times than not, bet on the unders! Let’s try to keep the momentum of double digit wins and over/unders going into week 3!

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U 39.5) – Playing on the road on a short week is always tough, but since the move, now have a short trip to the bay area. The 49ers were in there till the end against Seattle, which will be tough to come back 4 days later from. The Rams were heart broken at the end of their game and they bring the better running game. Another ugly TNF matchup. Los Angeles 17-14.

Baltimore (-3.5) @ Jacksonville (O/U 40) – Our first stupid early London game…ugh. Jacksonville went back to looking like the Jaguars in week two and things don’t get easier. This Ravens defense has forced 10 turnovers already and licking their chops to meet Blake Bortles. Jacksonville keeps it close but that defense from Baltimore bears down. Baltimore 20-17.

Cleveland (-1) @ Indianapolis (O/U 40.5) – The Browns favored on the road? Yes, for the first time in almost three years. They lost that game by 18. Don’t expect that result, but Jacoby Brisset looked way better than Scott Tolzein, and start number two should only be better. Too many mistakes from the rookie Kizer. Indianapolis 21-13.

Pittsburgh (-7.5) @ Chicago (O/U 43.5) – The men in black and yellow caught a break last week as they got to host Case Keenum, instead of Sam Bradford. For the third consecutive week in start the year, the Steelers are TD+ favorites. Look for Chicago, who plays better at home to keep it close, and Mike Glennon’s receivers will not drop the big catches this week. Chicago 23-21.

Miami (-6) @ New York Jets (O/U 42) – It is going to be a weekly occurrence all year long to write that the Jets are terrible. Miami pulled off an impressive road victory in LA to start their year and that offense should only get more comfortable as the season goes on. Smokin’ Jay is off and rolling. Miami 24-14. 

Houston @ New England (-13.5) (O/U 44) – Oh boy! 2nd straight road game, albeit 10 days off, and playing the Pats. Trouble for the rookie Deshawn Watson and the Texans. Houston’s defense should be able to get some pressure on Brady, but not nearly enough.  New England 30-16. 

New Orleans @ Carolina (-6) (O/U 47) – This is one of the more intriguing games of the weekend even though involves the 0-2 Saints. The way the Panthers are trying to protect Cam is by keeping games low scoring and taking less chances. The Saints may give up some big plays, but expect a close game that New Orleans pulls out late with the extra incentive to avoid 0-3. New Orleans 24-21.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-1.5) (O/U 41) – Sam Bradford should be back and as long as he plays, the Minnesota offense should look much more like week one than week two. Tampa Bay is a much bigger test than New Orleans, but expect Bradford to play well. Minnesota 28-24.

Atlanta (-3) @ Detroit (O/U 50.5) – Are the Lions legit? Or are the Cards and Giants just not very good? There will be plenty of doubters on Detroit, but there shouldn’t be. There defense is much improved and Matt Stafford has the ability to never be out of a game. Tough turnaround for both teams, but Detroit gets the benefit of being at home. Detroit 28-23.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia (-6) (O/U 43) – When you are trying to figure out an offensive line, the Eagles are not a team to do it against. They are the most underrated unit in the league, and it’s not close. New York is going to be playing with desperation, but I still believe that Philly’s defense is going to be too much to handle at home, unless the Giants score in some unconventional ways. Philadelphia 23-19.

Seattle @ Tennessee (-2.5) (O/U 42.5) – When teams are on the rise, there is a turning point in the season. Two years ago, Seattle came to Cincy and the Bengals battled back from 17 down in the fourth to beat them. This propelled them to a franchise-high 12 wins. I see something similar happening in Tennessee. The game will be low-scoring, but Seattle’s offensive line is the worst in the league. They will struggle all year against competent opponents. Tennessee 21-20.

Kansas City (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 47.5) – Desperation rears its ugly head in LA. The Chargers face a must-win game to avoid falling three games behind Kansas City. The nation is infatuated with the Chiefs right now which means one thing. They get beat. It has been the Chargers who have constantly found ways to lose, but they pull this one out. Los Angeles 27-21.

Cincinnati @ Green Bay (-9) (O/U 44.5) – Who has looked worst than the Bengals? Maybe the Jets or Niners, maybe. They shouldn’t be able to hang with Green Bay, BUT they will. There will be a sense of urgency and the beginning of a new identity with new OC Bill Lazor. Green Bay still wins, but the game stays close. Green Bay 22-17. 

Oakland (-3) @ Washington (O/U 54) – Oakland is the other darling of the NFL outside of Kansas City. A favorite, on the road, traveling across country, on SNF. They have won something like 8 straight 1 PM east coast games, but that streak comes to an end. Kirk Cousins should have a big day against this secondary. Washington 31-27.

Dallas (-3) @ Arizona (O/U 47) – I don’t know how to feel about this one. Dallas looked so bad last week, but that may be due to how good Denver can be. I think Ezekiel Elliott plays with a chip on his shoulder after being ridiculed all week due to his lack of effort at some points in week two. Dallas 24-17.

Lock of the Week (0-2) – Indianapolis (+1) over Cleveland

Other Best Bets (3-2-1)

Under 39.5 in LAR-SF

Washington (+3) vs. Oakland

Over 41 in TB-MIN

Record ATS through Week 2: 17-13-1

Record SU through Week 2: 22-9

Record O/U through Week 2: 16-12-3

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