Thursday Night Football
New England (-4) @ Tampa Bay – I keep thinking this game is going to be like the “on to Cincinnati” game from a few years back. But, this defense is bad. Like horribly bad. Should be the most entertaining TNF game of the year. Tampa Bay 34-31.
Sunday Afternoon Football
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants (-3) (O/U 45) – The two most disappointing teams in the NFL battle to avoid 0-5. I’ll pick the home team because I have no idea. New York 20-19.
Buffalo @ Cincinnati (-3) (O/U 39.5) – It’s the Bills who are sitting in first in the AFC East after three weeks who are led by the best scoring defense in the NFL so far. However, the Bengals defense might be the most underrated unit in the league. Look for an ugly, defensive dominated game with the Bengals edging the Bills, who are playing a 2nd straight road game after a big win in Atlanta. Cincinnati 16-14.
New York Jets @ Cleveland (PK) (O/U 39.5) – The two worst rosters meet in Cleveland and this will be the Browns best shot at a win this season. Even though the Jets have won two in a row, they aren’t any good. Hue Jackson gets his second win of his tenure. Cleveland 17-14.
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh (-8.5) (O/U 43) – It was the Le’Veon Bell show last week as the RB got 35 carries for almost 150 yards. Even though they got the win, Antonio Brown personified the diva receiver mold and threw a temper tantrum on the sideline. He may get 20 targets. The Jags secondary is good enough to keep it close. Pittsburgh 27-20.
Tennessee (-3) @ Miami (O/U ??) – If Marcus Mariota is able to play, the Titans get the win and send Miami to 0-4. I don’t think he starts. After not playing a home game in September, Miami gets one to start October and gets their first win over the Matt Cassel-led Titans. Miami 23-17.
San Francisco @ Indianapolis (-1.5) (O/U 44.5) – Another battle of two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Colts looked solid during the first half last Sunday night, and Jacoby Brissett has shown that he is at least competent at the position. He should make enough plays in a low scoring game to get a second victory. Indianapolis 14-13.
Arizona @ Philadelphia (-6.5) (O/U 45) – Carson Palmer should have a field day against that Philly secondary, who can’t stop any QB. But the Eagles have controlled the line of scrimmage and that is truly where NFL games are won. They are legit up front on both sides of the ball. Philadelphia 30-24.
Carolina @ Detroit (-2.5) (O/U 43) – I don’t trust the Panthers and that is saying a lot since they just went to Foxboro and beat the Pats. But this is a second straight road game against a eventual playoff team. Detroit keeps rolling. Detroit 27-17.
Seattle @ Los Angeles Rams (-1) (O/U 46.5) – The Rams offense is rolling. They have beaten the Seahawks the last three times at home. Who cares… Seattle got things going in the second half last week and that momentum should continue. Seattle 30-20.
Baltimore @ Oakland (-2.5) (O/U 39) – In a week filled with bad games, this is another. The Ravens are miserable on offense and the Raiders don’t have Derek Carr. Baltimore having to travel across the country makes the difference. Oakland 17-14.
Green Bay @ Dallas (-2.5) (O/U 53) – The Packers had some extra rest and that should be a big help with how beat up they are. Heading to Dallas is always hard, but that secondary has a ton of holes in them that Aaron Rodgers should be able to take advantage of. Green Bay 28-27.
Sunday Night Football
Kansas City (-1) @ Houston (O/U 45.5) – One of just two road teams favored where odds are out at books (injuries to Bradford and Mariota), and I think Vegas got it right. The Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL and although Houston is coming off a 43-pt win, they aren’t good enough on offense. Kansas City 27-20.
Monday Night Football
Minnesota (-3) @ Chicago (O/U ??) – I don’t think it matters who starts at quarterback for the Vikings. Mitchell Trubisky is making his debut and Minnesota isn’t a good matchup to do it against. They should make life miserable for the rook. Minnesota 21-14.
Lock of the Week (2-2): Detroit (-2.5) over Carolina
Other Best Bets (6-5-1):
Under 39.5 in CIN-BUF
Kansas City (-1) over Houston
Over 45.5 in PHI-ARI
Record ATS through Week 4: 34-28-1
Record SU through Week 4: 42-21
Record O/U through Week 4: 32-28-3