Thursday Night Football
Kansas City (-3) @ Oakland (O/U 46.5) – All of the doubts about Kansas City’s legitimacy arose back up after their sruggling loss at home to Pittsburgh. It was a game where they should have lost by 3 scores, but also could have easily won (Thanks, Andy Reid!). Now they have to go on the road to rival Oakland on a short week. That’s difficult at any point, but especially with Oakland playing for its season. With Derek Carr probably not 100%, the Chiefs get after him and are able to move the ball with Kareem Hunt. Kansas City 23-19.
Early Sunday Afternoon Games
Arizona @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) (O/U 46.5) (LONDON) – The third London game of the year is the first battle of division opponents. Arizona showed life last week as newly acquired Adrian Peterson ran wild on Tampa Bay. The Rams pulled off a gutsy win at Jacksonville and must be better against the run than they have been. They are and they get their 5th win of the year. Los Angeles 27-24.
Tampa Bay @ Buffalo (-3) – Outside of the Giants, no team has been a bigger disappointment to me than the Buccs. Jameis Winston, who I expected to take “the jump” this season simply hasn’t done it. It is still up in the air whether or not he plays after injuring his shoulder last weekend. Buffalo is coming off a bye, while Tampa plays their second straight outside of the division road game. Buffalo 24-17.
Tennessee (-7) @ Cleveland (O/U 45.5) – DeShone Kizer is back as the starting QB after his one week hiatus, but that won’t make any difference against the Titans, or really any other team in the NFL. The Browns just don’t have enough polished talent to beat anyone right now. Marcus Mariota showcased his ability on Monday Night Football to be able to be a pocket passer, and even though it was against the Colts, the Browns secondary isn’t any better. Tennessee 30-17.
New Orleans (-4) @ Green Bay (O/U 47.5) – The worst nightmare for the cheese-loving Wisconsinians came true last week as Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone. Their season now rest in the hands of Brett Hundley. While I expect him to be better this week after preparation, they don’t have a defense that can carry him through the rollarcoaster of a first time starter. New Orleans 26-20.
Jacksonville (-3) @ Indianapolis (O/U 43.5) – Jacoby Brissett has held his own in the absence of Andrew Luck, but this Jaguar defense is not going to be friendly. The secondary is really good, and even with a subpar run defense, they should get a few takeaways to win a big division game on the road. Jacksonville 26-14.
New York Jets @ Miami (-3) (O/U 38) – I don’t think I’ve picked a Dolphin game correct this year, as they have been unpredictable as any team. After looking atrocious against New York and New Orleans, they went to Atlanta and beat the Falcons last week. The Jets should feel good about the tough lost to New England, but there are no moral victories in the NFL. Miami rides their momentum to another W. Miami 17-13.
Baltimore @ Minnesota (-5.5) (O/U 39) – The Ravens may be 3-3, but they aren’t any good. After losing at home to the Bears last week, they have to travel to face a stingy Minnesota defense. Joe Flacco simply doesn’t have enough to beat them. Minnesota 21-16.
Late Sunday Afternoon Games
Dallas (-6) @ San Francisco (O/U 47) – The 49ers are so close to that first victory. They’ve lost five of their six games by 3 or less. I don’t think heartbreak gets them this week as Dallas feeds Zeke over and over. They don’t know how long they’ll have them, so he should get the ball 30+ times. Dallas 27-17.
Seattle (-4.5) @ New York Giants (O/U 40) – No receivers. No running game. Playing at Denver. Sounds worst than it turned out. Somehow, the Giants went to Denver and dominated the game, and now they play another great defense. Even though they are at home, I can’t see them winning two in a row. Seattle 24-20.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-5.5) (O/U 40.5) – The best rivalry in the NFL. It’s physical, it’s exciting, it’s dirty. Vontaze Burfict returns to Pittsburgh for the first time since he essentially ended their Super Bowl hopes two years ago. These teams always play ugly, low-scoring games in the Steel city and this one will be no different. Le’Veon Bell makes enough plays to escape a win for the Steelers. Pittsburgh 17-15.
Denver @ Los Angeles Chargers (PK) (O/U 40.5) – The Broncos can’t look terrible two weeks in a row, can they? They play better this week, but Philip Rivers will make some plays. In fact, he makes just enough to get another last second win for the Chargers. Los Angeles 23-21.
Sunday Night Football
Atlanta @ New England (-3.5) (O/U 56.5) – Super Bowl rematch. Let’s go! The Falcons got healthier, as Mo Sanu should make his return after missing last week. He makes a big difference in that offense. While Tom Brady will get his, the Pats defense won’t get enough stops for a W. Atlanta 31-30.
Monday Night Football
Washington @ Philadelphia (-4.5) (O/U 48.5) – These two NFC East rivals meet for the second time in the first seven. Philly got the best of them the first time around and I think they do again. They had extra rest after playing on Thursday night, and will continue to look like the class of the NFC. Philadelphia 27-22.
Lock of the Week (3-3): Under 40.5 in CIN-PIT
Other Best Bets (10-7-1):
Miami (-3) over New York Jets
Jacksonville (-3) over Tennessee
Over 46.5 in ARI-LAR
Record ATS through Week 6: 49-43-1
Record SU through Week 6: 56-37
Record O/U through Week 6: 50-40-3