Thursday Night Football
Seattle (-5.5) @ Arizona (O/U 41.5) – Didn’t get the blog posted in time for TNF, but here is proof of the pick!
And my breakdown: A big-time disappointing loss for Seattle last week at home to Washington. They had taken the lead late, but the LOB minus Earl Thomas couldn’t get a stop. Arizona got the win giving the ball to Adrian Peterson more than 35 times. On a short week, I can’t see him getting that type of work load, or have as much success. Seattle 23-16.
Early Sunday Afternoon Football
Cincinnati @ Tennessee (-5) (O/U 40.5) – Both teams have struggled more than expected on offense, especially the Bengals. Not only can they not protect Andy Dalton, they are the worst run-blocking team in the league. They will struggle the rest of the year with that combo. Tennessee should be able to run well enough to control the clock and the game, but Marvin always keeps games close on back to back road contest. Tennessee 21-17.
Cleveland @ Detroit (-12.5) (O/U 43.5) – The Browns come into another road game as double-digit underdogs, which is to no one’s surprise. The Lions knocked off Green Bay and have a real chance to make a run now. A favorable schedule starts Sunday as the Lions are my favorite to win the division. Detroit 30-14.
Green Bay @ Chicago (-5) (O/U 38) – No one could have ever imagined in their wildest dreams that the Bears would be 5-pt favorites hosting the Packers. However, without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers a pedestrian at best. In the first game Chicago is supposed to win, Brett Hundley finally pushes the ball downfield. Pack pull off the upset. Green Bay 17-16.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) (O/U 41) – Jacksonville is the class of that division led by their dominating defense. They do struggle to stop the run, which Melvin Gordon could take advantage of, but I don’t see Philip Rivers able to do enough to win. Blake Bortles keeps on rolling! Jacksonville 24-21.
Minnesota (-1) @ Washington (O/U 42.5) – Washington got that marquee win that they have been looking for when they went to Seattle and stole one. Kirk Cousins made some big time throws against that defense and will hope to get on a roll. Minnesota comes in off a bye and the excitement of Teddy Bridgewater just being on the sidelines, albeit as the backup, will have them more than ready to win in DC. Minnesota 23-20.
New Orleans (-2.5) @ Buffalo – While New Orleans has won six in a row and looking like the favorite in the NFC South, the Bills are trying to bounce back from a TNF loss to the Jets, where they were completely dominated. Buffalo has responded each time they have been doubted and I think they do again. Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy control the ball and the game. Buffalo 26-23.
New York Jets (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay (O/U 41.5) – Josh McCown v. Ryan Fitzpatrick! It doesn’t get any better than that!! The Jets are so much better than we thought, although certainly not world-beaters. Outside the Giants, no team has disappointed more than the Bucs. Fitzpatrick is now without Mike Evans, who is suspended, and the Bucs will go another week without a win. New York 23-21.
Pittsburgh (-10) @ Indianapolis (O/U 44) – The Colts finally beat a team with a win by taking down the Tom Savage-led Texans, but they might be winless if he had been their starter all year. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and the killer B’s are clicking on all cylinders. Pittsburgh 35-19.
Late Sunday Afternoon Games
Houston @ Los Angeles Rams (-12) (O/U 46) – We have been robbed of the Jared Goff-DeShaun Watson matchup, and robbed of any resemblance of a good game. The Rams are as good as anyone on the offensive side of the ball, which will cause major problems for Houston’s swiss cheese defense. Los Angeles 31-23.
Dallas @ Atlanta (-3) (O/U 48.5) – Ezekiel Elliott is finally going to begin serving his six-game suspension. That should cause problems for the Dallas offense, even though I become more and more of a Dak believer each week. This is a must win for Atlanta. Atlanta 24-23.
New York Giants (-1) @ San Francisco (O/U 42) – After losing close game after close game to begin the season, the winless 49ers have their best chance to win their first at home against the 1-win Giants. New York looked like a soulless team against the Rams and I can’t see much more fire from them this week. San Francisco 23-17.
Sunday Night Football
New England (-7.5) @ Denver (O/U 46) – Brock Osweiler has beaten the Pats before, but this just isn’t the same defense he had two years ago. While they will play better than a week ago when they gave up 51, the Patriots are coming off a bye and Belichick isn’t losing. New England 30-17.
Monday Night Football
Miami @ Carolina (-9) (O/U 40) – The Panthers can take over first place if the Saints lose Sunday and this is a game made for them. They’ll make it ugly, and they will make it difficult for Miami to move the ball. Carolina 20-12.
Lock of the Week (4-5): Buffalo (+2.5) over New Orleans
Other Best Bets (15-10-1)
New England (-7.5) over Denver
Over 46 in HOU-LAR
Under 40.5 in CIN-TEN
Record ATS through Week 9: 71-59-3
Record SU through Week 9: 85-48
Record O/U through Week 9: 67-64-3