CoB’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Thursday Night Football

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh (-7) (O/U 45) –

Early Sunday Afternoon Games

Detroit (-3) @ Chicago (O/U 41) – Chicago is significantly better at home, but they are coming off a tough loss that was sparked by a questionable call. Now, they have to bounce back against a Lions team that has won 2 in a row and put themselves in position to make a run. Detroit makes just enough plays. Detroit 23-21.

Jacksonville (-7.5) @ Cleveland (O/U 37) – The Jaguars are 3-0 and outscored the AFC North 97-23. And they haven’t played the winless Browns. This has all the makings of another blowout as Jacksonville begins to take sole control of the division. But, things in the NFL don’t make sense. Just when you think you have it figured out, something goes haywire. That’s the Browns this week. Cleveland 21-20.

Baltimore (-2) @ Green Bay (O/U 38) – Green Bay won its first game without Rodgers or Favre starting at QB in almost 30 years. Now, in a crowded NFC, each home game seems like a must win. But, how will Brett Hundley perform against a upper echelon defense? I can’t see him having too much success and the Ravens are coming off a bye. Baltimore 24-19.

Tampa Bay @ Miami (PK) (O/U 41.5) – In a game that was supposed to be played in Week one, these two teams come in disappointed with how their season’s have unfolded. Miami is atrocious on offense, and Tampa Bay has never figured things out. Mike Evans is back for Fitzy to throw to, but I’ll take the home team in a snorer. Miami 17-16.

Los Angeles Rams @ Minnesota (-2.5) (O/U 46) – The Case Keenum led Vikings have positioned themselves to make a run at the top seed in the NFC. I question whether or not they can keep it up, and Aaron Donald will make life difficult on Sunday. As for the Rams, Jared Goff will face possibly his toughest test of the year against this Minnesota defense on the road. I do think he finds some success, but not enough. Minnesota 27-24.

Washington @ New Orleans (-7.5) (O/U 51.5) – As we close in on Thanksgiving, we start to see teams pack it in who find themselves outside the playoffs. Washington had a chance to get back in the division race a week ago, but fell 4 games back in a high-scoring loss. New Orleans simply has more to play for, as Sean Payton has realized the beauty of a run game. New Orleans 30-20.

Kansas City (-10.5) @ New York Giants (O/U 46) – A double-digit underdog at home usually means the game is going to be close. Actually, almost always. But, not in this situation. Regardless of what it said at press conferences, the Giants have quit. They want nothing more than the season to be over. Kansas City 35-10.

Arizona @ Houston (-1) (O/U 38.5) – The fans got robbed in this one! What we thought was going to be a scintillating battle between Tom Savage and Drew Stanton has been replaced with Savage v. Blaine Gabbert. Don’t even think about watching this game. Home team wins. Houston 21-17.

Late Sunday Afternoon Games

Cincinnati @ Denver (-2.5) (O/U 39) – Denver has lost 5 in a row and Cincinnati has lost two straight. Both sit at 3-6 and for all truly realistic chances, out of the playoff race. I like Andy Dalton more than Brock Osweiler, so I’ll take the Bengals to sneak out of mile-high with a victory. Cincinnati 20-18.

Buffalo @ Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) (O/U 43.5) – The Nathan Peterman show has begun! In the midst of a playoff push, currently with the 5th best record in the AFC, the Bills benched Tyrod Taylor. I am enamored with Peterman, though. He was one of 5 players I loved in the draft, and really think he can carve out a starting role in this league. Going across the nation to make your first start isn’t ideal though. Los Angeles 27-23.

New England (-7) @ Oakland (O/U 54.5) (IN MEXICO) – The Patriots are absoluting rolling with the defense improving each week. While back to back road games are tough, doing at the altitude that they have to seems almost impossible. Unless, you have Tom Brady. Shootout alert. Pats take it. New England 34-28.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ Dallas (O/U 48.5) – In what could be essentially a division clinching win, Philly gets Dallas without Zeke and Sean Lee. The importance of Lee cannot be overstated as he is as important of any defensive player in the league. Philly should be able to run it at will. Philadelphia 24-20.

Monday Night Football

Atlanta @ Seattle (-3) (O/U 45) – Atlanta got the benefit on the Zeke, Sean Lee, and Tyron Smith-less Cowboys and took full advantage. Now, a trip in primetime to the 12th man awaits. Now, that’s no easy task. The Seahawks are beat up in the secondary and struggle against strong pass-rushers. That place will be rocking and will be the difference in the game. Seattle 26-24.

Lock of the Week (4-6): Over 45 in Atlanta-Seattle

Other Best Bets (17-12-1):

Cleveland (+7.5) over Jacksonville

Cincinnati (+2.5) over Denver

Under 48.5 in Philadelphia-Dallas

Record ATS through Week 10: 80-64-3

Record SU through Week 10: 97-50

Record O/U through Week 10: 73-72-3

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