First of all, last weeks picks only got sent to twitter, but here they were…
Thursday Night Football
New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2.5) (O/U 52) – It is do-or-die time for the Falcons. They find themselves two games back of the Saints with 4 to play, but 2 of the next 3 are between the two teams. For a team in a dire situation, they have a lot of control. Although New Orleans was really impressive last week at Carolina, I think desperation wins out here. Atlanta 27-24.
Proof of Pick:
Early Sunday Afternoon Football
Chicago @ Cincinnati (-6) (O/U 39.5) – The Bengals playoff hopes went by the wayside of the 17-point blown lead on Monday Night. In what was the most physical game of the year, the Bengals came out battered and bloodied. They could be without Vontaze Burfict, Joe Mixon, Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones, Nick Vigil, and Darqueze Dennard. That’s brutal. I think Dennard and Vigil play, and playing the anemic Bears are good for anyone. Cincinnati 21-17
Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-3) (O/U 38) – After the demoralizing loss to the Patriots, the Bills once again find themselves in must-win mode. In order to get that win, they will have to do it with Nathan Peterman under center. It can’t be worse than the LA game, right? He plays better, but Indy gets the road win. Indianapolis 20-16.
Green Bay (-3) @ Cleveland (O/U 38.5) – I think I’ve picked Cleveland to win two of the past three weeks. I just don’t see them going winless. And I’m doing it again this week. I think the game will go down to the wire, as Josh Gordon explodes. Cleveland 23-21.
Oakland @ Kansas City (-4) (O/U 48.5) – It’s amazing how much can change in 2 months. The Chiefs started 5-0, the Chargers 0-4, and the Raiders 2-4. Now, all three sit at 6-6 with four to play. The Chiefs play host to both teams the next two weeks. They can take back control. However, they are miserable right now, and just suspended Marcus Peters. All that being said, I think they find a way to get Kareem Hunt going and hit some big plays like they did at the beginning of the season. Kansas City 28-21.
Dallas (-3.5) @ New York Giants (O/U 41.5) – Ben McAdoo is finally out. Part of me thinks this will make the Giants play harder this week. But then again, they just aren’t very good. The Cowboys got things going last week, and can keep themselves in the race with a win. Dallas 24-17.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay (PK) (O/U 47.5) – The Lions are reeling after a getting blown out by the Ravens last weekend. Now, they have to go on the road outside of the division for a second straight week. Tampa Bay is good enough to win games when the other team isn’t at their best, and they put the nail in the Lions playoff coffin. Tampa Bay 28-27.
Minnesota (-2.5) @ Carolina (O/U 40) – Regardless of how this game plays out, Minnesota is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. That defense is ferocious and Case Keenum plays his role to perfection. With four games to go, they are in position to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (INCLUDING SB52)! Carolina plays spoiler in their attempt to get back to the top of the NFC South. Carolina 20-14.
San Francisco @ Houston (-1) (O/U 45.5) – The Jimmy G hype is real. Garrappolo won his first career start for the Niners and now travels to play the Texans. This offense is a mess without Deshaun Watson. San Francisco wins a second straight. San Francisco 17-14.
Late Sunday Afternoon Games
New York Jets (-1) @ Denver (O/U 40.5) – Eight straight losses for the Broncos. Wow. Is this the week they finally break the streak. The Jets are way better than anyone could have ever imagined, but much better at home. Denver 21-16.
Tennessee (-2.5) @ Arizona (O/U 42) – With four to go, every game is a big one for Tennessee. They find themselves tied atop the division and Jacksonville has to play Seattle today. However, it is been a quiet struggle for the Titans and this is a tough trip for them. Arizona 24-23.
Washington @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6) (O/U 47) – No team is hotter in the NFL than the San Diego Chargers. After an 0-4 start, they have put themselves tied for the division lead with four games to play. The Redskins had extra rest, but they got embarrassed by the Cowboys last Thursday. The best pass-rushing duo in the NFL will be all over Kirk Cousins. Los Angeles 27-16.
Philadelphia @ Los Angeles Rams (PK) (O/U 47) – The Game of the Week features two teams that weren’t thinking about the playoffs this time a year ago. The winner of this game will have taken a huge step to get a bye come January. Philly is playing its second straight game out west, after losing to Seattle, but stayed out there, which should help. Philadelphia 31-27.
Seattle @ Jacksonville (-2.5) (O/U 41) – The old Legion of Boom vs. the new Legion of Boom. It’s a shame that the Seahawks secondary is so beat up. But, when playing Jacksonville, your secondary doesn’t need to be great. Seattle is going to force Blake Bortles to beat them and I don’t think he can. Seattle 20-15.
Sunday Night Football
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5) (O/U 43) – Not only is Pittsburgh playing on a short week, they had a violent game against Cincinnati that left players injured, suspended, and fighting for the football careers. Now, they have to turn around and play “their true rival” (BS). That’s really tough. Flacco does just enough as the Ravens rely on Alex Collins and that defense. Baltimore 21-17.
Monday Night Football
New England (-11) @ Miami (O/U 47.5) – Every year, the Patriots lose a game in the division that they shouldn’t. It won’t be to Miami this year. Too much firepower against a team that has next to none. New England 33-20.
Lock of the Week (5-8): Philadelphia (+1) over Los Angeles
Other Best Bets (23-15-1):
Seattle (+2.5) over Jacksonville
New England (-11) over Miami
Under 43 in BAL-PIT
Record ATS through Week 13: 105-85-3
Record SU through Week 13: 130-63
Record O/U through Week 13: 95-95-4